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[Politics] Events, dear boy, events.
May. 24th, 2013 10:57 amI've been busy lately, but the other day I was planning a post in which I'd've outlined some thoughts which would have been invalidated almost immediately. In essence, the post I was looking to make was this: That, UKIP whilst looking strong in the polls and so on, were peaking and long term were dead in the water.
The reason I'd come to this conclusion was that, in watching their commentary and statements over the last month, I thought that David Cameron had played them incredibly well. In the space of a month, I was going to say, UKIP had gone from being the anti-EU party (a position which has mainstream popular support) to being the anti-gay marriage party (a position which doesn't). By agreeing to an EU-membership referendum and pushing Farage's buttons on gay marriage Cameron had effectively marginalised him. Over time, UKIP would become the 21st-century Greens.
Back in the 1990s, the Greens grew as a political force and in so doing forced mainstream politics to take ecological issues seriously. Once that had happened, the Greens declined to a rump of obsessive fruitcakes who do a lot of shouting, but are wedded to a land-of-make-believe ideology which nobody in their right mind takes seriously. In the 21st, I thought, UKIP had grown and forced the mainstream to take EU membership issues seriously and, having done so, would decline again to a rump largely similar to the Greens. Barring surprises, UKIP were toast.
And then a surprise happened.
Like it or not, a bloke covered in blood shouting about Allah after beheading a soldier in the street leading on the news has put things like immigration and culture right back to the top of the agenda. The party leaders have done exactly as you'd expect: Cameron has made all the right noises and speeches, Milliband has wondered if that rocket he's building to go and get some cheese off the moon will ever work, and Nick Clegg has looked sad. As the respectable "Worried about things like immigration" party, UKIP will gain from this.
There's an easy line a lot of people take at about this point about how UKIP are the party of racists and right-wingers and so on, so it's worth pointing out that at the recent local elections they took more votes from Labour than the Conservatives, and they made gains in places like Rawmarsh - which I grew up nearby and it's hardly a hotbed of Tory-Shire activism. As I get older, I find that engaging with the left and right, goodies and baddies style of political debate simply isn't worth my valuable time. I've talked before about the lefty/righty dichotomy and also the rise of political alternatives in the UK and I'm not planning to go through it again now.
What's going to happen is that anyone with concerns about immigration, whether those concerns are legitimate or not is going to look at the positions of the three main parties and the primary beneficiary of this is going to be Farage.
With his Eu-referendum and the gay marriage vote, Cameron must have felt he'd shot UKIP's fox - and he had. The thing is, like a bolt of lightning the events of the other day have made Farage sit up again and start demanding brains.
And he's going to get them.
The reason I'd come to this conclusion was that, in watching their commentary and statements over the last month, I thought that David Cameron had played them incredibly well. In the space of a month, I was going to say, UKIP had gone from being the anti-EU party (a position which has mainstream popular support) to being the anti-gay marriage party (a position which doesn't). By agreeing to an EU-membership referendum and pushing Farage's buttons on gay marriage Cameron had effectively marginalised him. Over time, UKIP would become the 21st-century Greens.
Back in the 1990s, the Greens grew as a political force and in so doing forced mainstream politics to take ecological issues seriously. Once that had happened, the Greens declined to a rump of obsessive fruitcakes who do a lot of shouting, but are wedded to a land-of-make-believe ideology which nobody in their right mind takes seriously. In the 21st, I thought, UKIP had grown and forced the mainstream to take EU membership issues seriously and, having done so, would decline again to a rump largely similar to the Greens. Barring surprises, UKIP were toast.
And then a surprise happened.
Like it or not, a bloke covered in blood shouting about Allah after beheading a soldier in the street leading on the news has put things like immigration and culture right back to the top of the agenda. The party leaders have done exactly as you'd expect: Cameron has made all the right noises and speeches, Milliband has wondered if that rocket he's building to go and get some cheese off the moon will ever work, and Nick Clegg has looked sad. As the respectable "Worried about things like immigration" party, UKIP will gain from this.
There's an easy line a lot of people take at about this point about how UKIP are the party of racists and right-wingers and so on, so it's worth pointing out that at the recent local elections they took more votes from Labour than the Conservatives, and they made gains in places like Rawmarsh - which I grew up nearby and it's hardly a hotbed of Tory-Shire activism. As I get older, I find that engaging with the left and right, goodies and baddies style of political debate simply isn't worth my valuable time. I've talked before about the lefty/righty dichotomy and also the rise of political alternatives in the UK and I'm not planning to go through it again now.
What's going to happen is that anyone with concerns about immigration, whether those concerns are legitimate or not is going to look at the positions of the three main parties and the primary beneficiary of this is going to be Farage.
With his Eu-referendum and the gay marriage vote, Cameron must have felt he'd shot UKIP's fox - and he had. The thing is, like a bolt of lightning the events of the other day have made Farage sit up again and start demanding brains.
And he's going to get them.
