davywavy: (Default)
[personal profile] davywavy
Reading the news, I see that Bradley Murdoch has been found giilty and sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder of backpacker Peter Falconio. Under other circumstances, this story would just be another news story, but one thing about it struck me - the DNA evidence presented was so strong that the chance of someone other than Murdoch being at the scene (and thus being the killer) was 150,000,000,000,000,000 to 1 against.

Under those circumstances, I have to wonder how anyone could present a "not guilty" plea with a perfectly straight face.

Date: 2005-12-13 01:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vulgarcriminal.livejournal.com
Perhaps he's a creationist?

Date: 2005-12-13 02:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tooth-fairy.livejournal.com
maybe he's attention seeking?

Date: 2005-12-13 02:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] azekeil.livejournal.com
Having been in a jury for a trial that relied on DNA evidence, it's not so much the DNA evidence so much as the collection and procedures that surrounded it. The trial I was involved in the sample was collected from a pamphlet (which can move) rather than the wall (which cannot), and the details surrounding the collection were very hazy.

Date: 2005-12-13 02:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jonnyargles.livejournal.com
what azekeil said. Murdoch's claim was that the cells found on Falconio's jacket could have come from sitting on the same chair at a roadside cafe a couple of days back.

Well, they could have!

Date: 2005-12-13 03:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sesquipedality.livejournal.com
If long odds proved anything, no-one would ever win the lottery. Suppose for example he'd been seen 500 miles away at work by 50 people at the time of the murder. If it were physically impossible for him to have commited the murder, it wouldn't matter what the odds against him having not been at the crime scene were.

This is why frequentist statistics are not suitable evidence in criminal proceedings.

Date: 2005-12-13 04:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mrmmarc.livejournal.com
For myself...

...just another reason why one should avoid Australia I say.
Seen the pictures recently as well.

Full of convicts you know.

However...

Date: 2005-12-13 04:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
If he'd been seen 500 miles away by 50 people, it is rather less likely the case would have gone to court...
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