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davywavyWell howdy there ol' blogosphere. Been a while, but thought I'd step in for a minute. Might I say I haven't seen you in a time, but you're looking mighty fine. You've not aged a day.
So, the US elections. I've thought for a long time - since just after the 2016 election in fact - that Trump would be a two-term President. It's not something I said too loudly as I can only handle so much argument, but I figured that he'd been painted in such staggering colours during the election campaign that all he had to do was be half as bad as his opponents had said he was and it'd look like a victory. And, in the main, I felt he'd managed that.
And then along came Coronavirus. You can't have missed Trumps staggeringly incompetent reaction to the virus in its early stages. I mean, even his closest supporters must have looked at themselves in the mirror and taken an extra large slug out of their flask that morning before going in to bat, right? And then there was the reaction of his even more insipid collection of lickspittles and hangers-on. Take this singularly witless intervention:
If you'd taken Cletus' advice here and gone all in you'd be more than 20% down in three weeks, and the last time someone made me 20% poorer in less than a month I'd at least got a hangover and an interesting rash to show for it.*
Quite seriously, Eric was clearly playing the knowledge that daddy was throwing a trillion dollars at the market to stabilise it and wanted to look good ahead of the curve and got caught with his pants down because he deleted that tweet a couple of days later. I'll tell you what, if my dad could print a trillion on demand I'd be a bit less needy, but what do I know?
For the first time, I thought, my belief that Trump would get a second term was shaken. His staggering degree of fucknuggeted ineptitude was clear to the meanest of intellects, meaning only 25-30% of the good American public still approved of him. At that stage, all his opponents had to do was keep breathing - a bit of a task for either Bernie or Joe - and they'd walk it.
But
But
But.
What so many fail to realise - and amongst them I count both Trumps opponents and his many of detractors - is that politics is showbiz and politicians are actors. And nowhere is this more true than the United States. Reagan got it. Clinton got it. Even Bush Junior sort-of got it, in the same way that Calvin thinks that girls get the fact they're girls:
Trump gets this at an instinctive level that I think many miss. And what actors do is they change roles. They play different parts. Two, three weeks ago, Trump was playing the devil-may-care desperado, who didn't care two hoots what no city slicker doctor and his college edjumacation from back east was sayin'. But that was weeks ago. Are you still talking about that? That's like still talking about Robert Downey Junior being washed up after Iron Man, or does anyone even remember that time Britney Spears shaved her head any more? You're still talking about that? Wow, move on.
If you like, I'll dress this up as the most quintessentially American tale, the western. A month ago, Trump was the cattle-rustlin' outlaw. Liked to portray himself as a folk hero, but that's kinda seen through and folks weren't buying it no more. Ol' Joe Biden? He's been deputy before and knows the ropes, and I reckon he might be what's needed to lend this town a steady hand. And Preacher Saunders? Well, he's fine in chapel on a Sunday but I ain't castin' my vote for him, if you catch my drift.
But then the movie changed as all of a sudden in comes riding the virus gang and the Corona boys. And Trump, as the actor he is, changed roles. Quickly and seamlessly. Now he's the cattle baron. Sure, and he's played fast and loose with water rights and whatnot in the past but now he's moseying into town with him, his boys, and six trillion dollars of federal ordnance that folks best not ask too closely how he came by it, and he's asking the townsfolk to hunker down while he rides those virus boys out on a rail. And if you'd see your way to re-electing him as Mayor when the time comes, he'd be mighty grateful.
And this puts the ball firmly back in Joe and Bernie's court. How do they address that? I don't think they've even really realised the game has changed as the roles have shifted. They're still playing their same characters, solid deputy, finger-waggin' preacher, as the outlaws ride into town shooting the place up. Neither of them have shown the actors instinct to adapt not just their footing, but their entire personae, to circumstances.
Suddenly, it's a lot less in doubt than I thought it was only a few weeks ago. So much will depend on how much damage Coronavirus and the attendant shutdown does, but just as much to the outcome is how much Ol 'Hoss' Trump paints himself the hero. It no longer matters he was wearing a black hat three weeks ago. He's wearing the white one now, and American audiences know that's who you cheer for. To win, Joe needs to take it off him.
Because Bernie? Seriously, take a second. He's fine in chapel on a Sunday, but you don't vote for the guy.
*Aside note: Anyone who ever tells you to go 'all in' in investing is either a fucking lunatic or selling something and you're the mark.
So, the US elections. I've thought for a long time - since just after the 2016 election in fact - that Trump would be a two-term President. It's not something I said too loudly as I can only handle so much argument, but I figured that he'd been painted in such staggering colours during the election campaign that all he had to do was be half as bad as his opponents had said he was and it'd look like a victory. And, in the main, I felt he'd managed that.
And then along came Coronavirus. You can't have missed Trumps staggeringly incompetent reaction to the virus in its early stages. I mean, even his closest supporters must have looked at themselves in the mirror and taken an extra large slug out of their flask that morning before going in to bat, right? And then there was the reaction of his even more insipid collection of lickspittles and hangers-on. Take this singularly witless intervention:
If you'd taken Cletus' advice here and gone all in you'd be more than 20% down in three weeks, and the last time someone made me 20% poorer in less than a month I'd at least got a hangover and an interesting rash to show for it.*
Quite seriously, Eric was clearly playing the knowledge that daddy was throwing a trillion dollars at the market to stabilise it and wanted to look good ahead of the curve and got caught with his pants down because he deleted that tweet a couple of days later. I'll tell you what, if my dad could print a trillion on demand I'd be a bit less needy, but what do I know?
For the first time, I thought, my belief that Trump would get a second term was shaken. His staggering degree of fucknuggeted ineptitude was clear to the meanest of intellects, meaning only 25-30% of the good American public still approved of him. At that stage, all his opponents had to do was keep breathing - a bit of a task for either Bernie or Joe - and they'd walk it.
But
But
But.
What so many fail to realise - and amongst them I count both Trumps opponents and his many of detractors - is that politics is showbiz and politicians are actors. And nowhere is this more true than the United States. Reagan got it. Clinton got it. Even Bush Junior sort-of got it, in the same way that Calvin thinks that girls get the fact they're girls:
Trump gets this at an instinctive level that I think many miss. And what actors do is they change roles. They play different parts. Two, three weeks ago, Trump was playing the devil-may-care desperado, who didn't care two hoots what no city slicker doctor and his college edjumacation from back east was sayin'. But that was weeks ago. Are you still talking about that? That's like still talking about Robert Downey Junior being washed up after Iron Man, or does anyone even remember that time Britney Spears shaved her head any more? You're still talking about that? Wow, move on.
If you like, I'll dress this up as the most quintessentially American tale, the western. A month ago, Trump was the cattle-rustlin' outlaw. Liked to portray himself as a folk hero, but that's kinda seen through and folks weren't buying it no more. Ol' Joe Biden? He's been deputy before and knows the ropes, and I reckon he might be what's needed to lend this town a steady hand. And Preacher Saunders? Well, he's fine in chapel on a Sunday but I ain't castin' my vote for him, if you catch my drift.
But then the movie changed as all of a sudden in comes riding the virus gang and the Corona boys. And Trump, as the actor he is, changed roles. Quickly and seamlessly. Now he's the cattle baron. Sure, and he's played fast and loose with water rights and whatnot in the past but now he's moseying into town with him, his boys, and six trillion dollars of federal ordnance that folks best not ask too closely how he came by it, and he's asking the townsfolk to hunker down while he rides those virus boys out on a rail. And if you'd see your way to re-electing him as Mayor when the time comes, he'd be mighty grateful.
And this puts the ball firmly back in Joe and Bernie's court. How do they address that? I don't think they've even really realised the game has changed as the roles have shifted. They're still playing their same characters, solid deputy, finger-waggin' preacher, as the outlaws ride into town shooting the place up. Neither of them have shown the actors instinct to adapt not just their footing, but their entire personae, to circumstances.
Suddenly, it's a lot less in doubt than I thought it was only a few weeks ago. So much will depend on how much damage Coronavirus and the attendant shutdown does, but just as much to the outcome is how much Ol 'Hoss' Trump paints himself the hero. It no longer matters he was wearing a black hat three weeks ago. He's wearing the white one now, and American audiences know that's who you cheer for. To win, Joe needs to take it off him.
Because Bernie? Seriously, take a second. He's fine in chapel on a Sunday, but you don't vote for the guy.
*Aside note: Anyone who ever tells you to go 'all in' in investing is either a fucking lunatic or selling something and you're the mark.
