Nuclear Weapons and other benefits of modern life.

[davywavy]

The papers yesterday were full of Prime Ministerial things, including one piece which I found quite sobering - a reminder that the only person in the country with the authority to order a nuclear strike using the British Armed Forces is the Prime Minister. Now, I don't know about you, but overall given a choice between this decision being made by pretty much any Prime Minister I can name and, say , the Queen, I'd rather have her Majesty's finger on the button any day of the week. Whichever way a nuclear decision went, I can't think of any Prime Minister I'd really trust to make the right call.
It's distressingly easy to imagine Tony Blair striking a pose of sanctimonious piety and hang-wringing faux-concern whilst blithely condemning untold millions to sizzling oblivion, and it's similarly easy to imagine John Major Umming and Ahhing in a frenzy of indecision before being carried away in an expanding nuclear fireball because he'd left the decision too late.
All told, the British nuclear arsenal is relatively small. The French, Ukranians, Russians, Belarussians, Chinese and US all have definitely have many more atom bombs than us (although the Ukrainian and Belarussian ones are under the control of Russia), and several emerging powers like India, Israel and Brazil may well have but they're keeping quiet about it. Even more worryingly, there's a suggestion that Japanese Death cult Aum Shrinko (responsible for the Tokyo Sarin-gas attack) detonated the worlds first non-governmental nuclear device in the mid 1990's.
Be that as it may, the thing about atom bombs - their entire point, no less - is that you don't need very many of them to really spoil someone's day. The British stockpile of about 200 warheads has a theoretical ability to devastate an area of some 20,000 square miles and dangerously irradiate an area double that - about a tenth of the land area of, say, France.


I'm just saying.


That article which caught my attention was one which pointed out that one of the first duties of an incoming Prime Minister is to write a letter outlining what the reaction of British nuclear commanders should be in the event of their death in a nuclear attack. The letter is handwritten and then sealed unread by anyone except the PM. Should London and the chain of command be vapourised, the letter is opened and acted on. When a PM leaves office, the letter is destroyed, unopened; the idea being that only the PM knows what is in it and ever will. Apparently when Blair wrote his letter he turned white as a sheet and shook, and when Major wrote his he had to take a day or two off afterwards to recover.
I actually find it rather comforting that people writing what is an effective posthumous death warrant for millions are so affected by doing so.

Of course, the effect of reading about this is to make me wonder what my letter would say. Even if the incoming PM is committed to nuclear disarmament the letter must be written to cover the period before decomissioning, so there's no cop out there. The options which military advisors give the PM are said to include; retaliate, stand down and retreat to Australia (if it's still there), place yourself under the command of the US (if it's still there), use your judgement, and several others.
I mentally started to compose a letter, like you do, but quickly realised that what I was mentally writing was a mealy-mouthed buck-passing pile of crap. I might have a go at thinking about it again later.

So, there's my question to you: If you were PM, what would your letter say?

Comments

[flywingedmonkey.livejournal.com]

Whoever it was that killed us-
Find them.
And kill them.

JmC
Revenge is a dish best served with a thermo-nuclear warhead

[http://users.livejournal.com/_grimtales_/]

Stand down, don't fire.
The world will survive better if we don't contribute to its destruction.

[aiwendel.livejournal.com]

'I nominate the queen'
:)

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

It's kept in the patrolling trident submarine - if that's gone then we really can't launch anyway.

[christ1974.livejournal.com]

Mine would say.

Well at least I don't have to do question time anymore! NEither does anyone else for that matter.

Do what you like coz I aint gonna give a rats ass about what happens now as everyone I care about was no doubt with me when I was killed.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

Best answer of the day so far.
The Queen will absorb radiation and become Her Destructor-Maj! Trampling the foreign dogs beneath Her regal, irradiated heels.

I can't wait.

[calligrafiti.livejournal.com]

I'd probably leave it up to the commanders' discretion. Career military officers should have a far better idea of what to do in this situation than most others, including whether retaliation, standing down, or retreating to various locations is the best way to react. If the only thing left in the UK is the Orkney Islands and a dreadnaught with a nuclear missile, would there be a point to retaliating? If the nuke that took me out was part of an attack on DC while I was on an official visit then there might be a lot more to defend, and retreating to the US would be contraindicated by the situation. Actually, retreating to the US or Australia would mean trusting the leaders of those countries with some control over the British armed forces, and I wouldn't trust either of the current leaders with a plastic spork, so that one's right out. I'd leave the immediate war time decision making to the military.

However, after I finish my first cup of coffee this morning, my opinions might change. I like to think I'd write this letter on more than 4 hours of sleep, unlike this comment.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

That's pretty much my POV, but there's so much "I'm not suuuure" about the whole thing. If you don't retaliate, it could well make the situation worse ("Da! British fools do not retaliate! We shall start on running dog capitalist Amercans next!"). My reaction was leave it to the commander's discretion, but that really struck me a a complete cop out and I didn't like it which is why I abandoned that chain of thought.

Umm...what me worry?

[applez.livejournal.com]

1. Present Nuclear States are: France, the US, UK, Russia (and they have all the warheads, even if other former-USSR still have planes) + Israel (open secret), Pakistan (you forgot Pakistan), India. Brazil and South Africa dismantled theirs (confirmed by IAEA, I believe). North Korea has its prototype tested. Plus the 'hypothetical' nuclear state of Japan (e.g. they have all precursor technologies, just not in that particular application).

2. Given the very hypothetical deterrent effect of the UK's limited arsenal, plus the size of the UK making it an all-or-nothing annihilative result in any serious nuclear state exchange - the reality of the UK's arsenal, if ever used, would be almost purely a revenge weapon. At that point, it doesn't really matter whose hand is 'on the button' so to speak.

3. If there was any real possibility of these horrific weapons being used before or concurrent to the probable annihilation of the British people at home ... would it be better to have it in the hands of an institutional populist, or a monarch with global investments of significant personal concern? I'm not sure who would do the 'better' job in this scenario, frankly. I'll reiterate my Revolutionary prejudices and side with the elected leader. ;-)

Re: Umm...what me worry?

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

I didn't forget Pakistan - I noted the people who have, or may have, more atom bombs than us. Pakistan only has a couple, AFAIK. SA definitely dismantled, but I think the jury is still rather out on Brazil - they've got a lot of room to hide them. Perhaps we ought to invade, just to be on the safe side?

Given that the Monarch and the Lords have shown considerably more interest in Democracy than our elected representatives of late (or yours, for that matter), I know who I'd rather trust at current time.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

But they're foreign - how can they also be 'innocents'?

[ukmonty.livejournal.com]

Blow Up Yorkshire, Save lancashire

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

It's true that only British bombs could hurt Yorkshire. It's too tough for softy foreign nukes to harm.

[elbly.livejournal.com]

Dear Most Senior Person Left Alive (probably Roger the Cabin Boy)

1) If it was the US: I knew it would be! I never trusted them! I suggest dropping a couple of small ones on any of their major power stations. Then vapourise all the gold in fort knox.

2) If it was the French: I never trusted them! Saying they were our friends after we saved their sorry arses! Drop a couple of small ones on any easy to reach nuclear powerstations. That'll learn'em.

3) If it was the Russians: Who'd'a thunk it? Hmm. Infiltrate Russia and steal all their furry hats. That'll infuriate them.

4) If it was Israel: Don't touch them! It's the holy land. Go to them cup in hand and promise to be kosha from now on!

5) If it was the Chinese: Well we have been mocking their waiters for years... we probably deserved a little more than just the occational urine soup. Go to Austrailia and start farming wallabees.

6) If it was Outer Mongolia: I want you to erect a flag on Downing Street saying "Didn't I say they were building an arsenal? Did anyone believe me? No! Well aren't you sorry now! Love, Elbly" P.s. Bomb their HQ and all their guineapig farms.

7) If it was anyone else: Run around screaming like frightened women with your underwear on your heads for 10 minutes. Then drink some tea and calm down. When that doesn't work, drink some gin and start giggling like a fool. When the hangover wear's off, go and make a nice little home for yourself on the Falkland Islands and tell the Argentinians that you are now the King of the Island and are prepared to make peace. If they try to take the island by force, bomb them! Oh - and make sure the Argentinians know that Gibralta's part of the package - don't, what ever you do, hand it back to the Spanish!

Lots of love, Elbly, your illustrious, and now somewhat fried, leader.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

How about:

Dear Captain,

APRIL FOOL!

Love, your ex-PM.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

Apparently when Gordon Brown wrote his letter he was giggling insanely and muttering "This'll show 'em, oh yes. Bastards. I'll show them all."

I'm not filled with confidence.

[hiromasaki.livejournal.com]

Hrm.... Presuming I was the British PM: (Which would be difficult, being a Yank and all...)

If attack was Multi-National, check that warheads were not hijacked (It's been in enough movies, I'm sure it's given people ideas) and if they weren't, let fly the nukes of war. (Co-ordinate with what's left of the US, so that we don't overlap, and see if Israel or India will toss a few in as well.)

If the attack only leveled London, Co-ordinate with intelligence from Australia, Israel, US, and Canada. Determine origin, warn allies of intent, and then retaliate.

If sufficient damage is done to the landmass of Britain in general, begin evacuation of civilian personnel to nearest safe zone, once again co-ordinating with any and all remaining allies. (Canada seems the logical choice, due to distance travelled, land available, and loyalty to Her Highness, but use your judgement as necessary.)

[elbly.livejournal.com]

Well that's all well and good, but the gerbils have informed me that the UK will be vapourised on a Thursday in November. So it'd be fairly early for an April Fool.

[colonel-maxim.livejournal.com]

Loathe though I am to say it, my response would be 'Let the skies burn and vengeance fall upon them!'

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

I'd expect nothing less from you.

Re: Umm...what me worry?

[applez.livejournal.com]

Brazil isn't really much to worry over, I feel. I mean, they had a hell of a time trying to complete their spaceport facilities, and their nuclear program is just now trying to find the finances to complete a third reactor. Not exactly the kind of organisational accumen, of say, the Israeli program.

Re: Umm...what me worry?

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

I rather like the idea of the Brazilians having the bomb - they'd have a samba cold war.

"Apocalypso, Apocalypso!"

Re: Umm...what me worry?

[applez.livejournal.com]

But Jamaican atomic-limbo skills will contend. ;-)

[gwaunquest.livejournal.com]

Dear all
Sorry I wasn't around for the party. Tell Sheik Kalid the negatives are in a tea caddy on the dresser. Tell the Home Secretary (if she's still around) that yes her bum did look big in that. The no. to the secret account in the Seyshells is tatooed under my Budgies left wing. Hope he's not fried, as I've just taught him to say "It's the plumber". If any of the cabinet are still standing the tea kitty is at least four weeks behind - do something about it.I won't be there to keep topping it up. Someone try to remember to get the car serviced and better cancel my "Give as you Earn" subscription to save the Orang Utan. There probably wont be much point now.

[(Anonymous)]

Good argument. Would the world survive better without so many people, and should we order strikes against dense population centres?

[http://users.livejournal.com/_grimtales_/]

It would, but conventional nukes aren't very good for depopulation. In this case though, basically, nuclear retaliation just makes things worse for everyone.

[(Anonymous)]

why?

[colonel-maxim.livejournal.com]

They have sown the wind, let them reap the whirlwind. I suspect that, in my heart of hearts, I loathe the idea that some monster has destroyed my country. Actions have consequences and ensuring that he gains no reward for his actions is enough for me. Besides which, I confess that I feel the concept of vengeance to be satisfying in these circumstances.