davywavy: (ming)
[personal profile] davywavy
I see from this morning's newspaper that the number of people 'out of work and claiming benefits' has tipped over 6m for the first time ever. That's a pretty big jump from the 5m-ish which was reported 18 months ago and indicates that far more than that number have actually lost their jobs.

We've got a general election coming up next May. With this in mind, and for reasons outlined in this post, I'm offering bets that we see our first BNP MP next year. I'm offering a fiver. Any takers?

Date: 2009-08-19 09:25 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] thegreenman.livejournal.com
I love the title of your post.

One wonders why NuLabia don't have a rebranding sesh. Dump The Labour Party for something more accurate...The Dinkey Party?

After all they can hardly claim to represent the traditional labour voter any more. Their target demographic seems to be the middle classes these days.

Date: 2009-08-19 09:32 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
I was reading an interesting piece by Leon Trotsky which he wrote back in 1925 a while ago - it's called something like "Where is Britain going?".
He made the very interesting point that the Labour movement was made up of three separate social/historical strands:
i: The tradition of dissent, be it political, social or religious
ii: The working class movement to improve and better themselves through opportunity and education, and
iii: Fabianism.

He observed that the first two were laudable, but that Fabianism was a philosophy which simply reinforced control over the poor and offered them no true opportunities for a better life - it simply allowed the middle classes to show off how gracious and giving they were by 'helping' the poor; of course, this requires that the poor should always be kept in a position to need that help rather being put in a position to better themselves.
He said it would be catastrophic for the country should Fabianism ever gain ascendancy. I was struck by just how prescient he was.

Date: 2009-08-19 09:36 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] thegreenman.livejournal.com
Indeed.

It does rather seem that the harder the PM tries to help "the poor", the worse off the country seems to become.

Date: 2009-08-19 09:39 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
It's fairly self explanatory; if you are a champion of the poor, you need people to stay that way as otherwise they'll no longer need you.

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*sulks*

Date: 2009-08-19 09:40 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Rats, I was hoping to make myself some easy money with this one.

Date: 2009-08-19 10:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rssefuirosu.livejournal.com
Why not - betting on a hopeless cause for no better reason than believing in humanity's better nature is an MO i can get behind. I'm in for a fiver :D

Date: 2009-08-19 11:02 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
You're betting against stupidity and misdirected self interest. Good luck with that.

Date: 2009-08-19 12:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
I don't think many of their voters are stupid, just desperate.

Date: 2009-08-19 11:09 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
You're on.


And so the rich get richer. Ru ha ha haa!

Date: 2009-08-19 11:39 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rssefuirosu.livejournal.com
Give unto the toff... Not to worry, I'll claim it back on my expenses ;)

Date: 2009-08-19 11:43 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
Well, quite. If a fellow wishes to invest in the better side of human nature, he should contibute to that, not your already ample beer gut.

Date: 2010-08-27 09:00 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Looks like I owe you a fiver, then.

Date: 2010-08-27 10:20 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rssefuirosu.livejournal.com
Huzzah! And all I had to do was tie up Yorkshire's voting system.

Date: 2010-08-27 10:22 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Looks like my election - predictive powers were slipping a bit at the last one. It's the first election (Uk or US) I've called the result wrong since I started voting.

Date: 2009-08-19 11:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] belak-krin.livejournal.com
A fool's bet - I'll be impressed if we only end up with one.

I'd like to think that the presence of the BNP in parliament will be sufficient to make the other parties carefully examine why the BNP are getting votes, and make some adjustments to their financial/social policies to try and recover the 'working man's' vote.

Of course, I think the chances of them getting completely the wrong idea and Gordon Brown will be announcing the new New Labour by standing under a huge sign saying 'Darkies Out' are far too high...

Date: 2009-08-19 11:47 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
But he'll have changed his name to Gordon White, obviously.

Date: 2009-08-19 11:53 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
If Broon's still leading Labour by then, he could change his name to Free Beer for all the good it will do them.

Date: 2009-08-19 12:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
It might sound odd to hear me say this, but I intend to be shilling hard for the LibDems next year. Sure, the Conservatives are going to win, but having an opposition with any credibility at all is very important and Labour won't have any.

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Date: 2009-08-19 11:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] raggedyman.livejournal.com
if you need a fiver you just have to ask

Date: 2009-08-19 11:57 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
That's kind of you, just send me a cheque.

Date: 2009-08-19 12:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] zenicurean.livejournal.com
I never bet against simple-mindedness.

Date: 2009-08-19 12:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Somewhat worryingly, the evidence suggests that the BNP's target voters are often the people best informed as to which parties would be acting in their best interest.

Date: 2009-08-19 12:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] zenicurean.livejournal.com
That's a terrifying observation and it just screams for a Labour joke to go with it.

Date: 2009-08-19 12:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Check out Stuart Sutherland's book Irrationality. It's an eye-opening read.
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