GDP.

Nov. 27th, 2009 10:54 am
davywavy: (Default)
[personal profile] davywavy
Back in 2001, economist Edward Castronova completed a then-groundbreaking study. He'd just spent the last two years looking at the economy of Norrath, the game-world of online game Everquest, and he'd come to an interesting conclusion: taking accepted measures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) into account, Norrath had the 77th largest economy in the world.

About 12,000 people call [Norrath] their permanent home, although some 60,000 are present there at any given time, He said. The nominal hourly wage is about USD 3.42 per hour, and the labors of the people produce a GNP per capita somewhere between that of Russia and Bulgaria. A unit of Norrath's currency is traded on exchange markets at USD 0.0107, higher than the Yen and the Lira.

The reason for this valuation was the real-world currency resale value of goods and services aquired or provided in the game world; spend an hour gold farming or questing for magic items, and the average resale value of those items would be US$3.42 an hour.

The problem with using GDP as a measure for pretty much anything is that it is rubbish. First developed as a means of economic measurement back in the 1930s, GDP is defined as a measure of the value of 'finished goods and services' - that is, things like sacks of potatoes and manufactured cars. The problem is that it's utterly hopeless at measuring things like intellectual property and intangible goods, so when people say that the GDP of the UK is US$2.65trn, that's at best a wild guess: it's estimated that as modernised Western economies have shifted away from manufacturing and towards information, service and energy trading, GDP estimates have become wrongly estimated by up to 20% which can obviously have some quite serious knock-on effects. It's perfectly possible that the UK has a couple of hundred billion knocking about in the economy which nobody knows about and the recession isn't as bad as everyone thinks. Then again, we might be up to 20% worse off, in which case we're actually now functionally bankrupt and it's just that nobody has noticed.
Let's hope they don't, eh?

The advantage of using online worlds to measure things about GDP is that it is possible to know everything which is going on in a way which you can't in the real world: all the finished goods, all the gold in circulation and so on allows an exceptionally accurate knowledge of the value of an economy, and games have been proposed and developed to carry out the sort of economic experiements with control of variables which were impossible only a few years ago.
What's more interesting is the way online games have continued to grow since Castronova did his first study. WoW has topped 14 million players, putting Everquests' 60,000 to shame. A survey of the continent of Northrend in WoW indicates that this single area has a real-world equivalent GDP roughly equal to Romania, the 42nd richest country in the world.

What this comes down to is that sooner or later Azeroth is going to be in a position to demand a seat on the G8. Personally, I can't wait for the photocall. If I'm being honest, I'd rather be represented by Grom Hellscream than Gordon Brown on the international stage anyway. It'd be much less embarrassing.

Random point

Date: 2009-11-27 11:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] raggedyman.livejournal.com
Grom died in Warcraft 3, you'd get represented by Thrall and he's a total hippy.

Re: Random point

Date: 2009-11-27 11:36 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Oh, you kids with your interwebs and your blags and suchlike! By George, when I was your age I made do with some tin cans and a bit of string and I was perfectly happy!

This was all trees when I was a girl.

Re: Random point

Date: 2009-11-27 12:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cleosilver.livejournal.com
Could be worse. Could be Garrosh :)
The guy you really want is Saurfang the Elder.
(deleted comment)

Re: GDP - from what I remember

Date: 2009-11-27 03:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
I think that the consensus on GDP is that it's a useful tool but that's about it, so governmental obsession with growing it isn't necessarily the smartest thing to do.
In terms of GDP development, the perfect person is someone with terminal cancer on expensive drugs going through a messy divorce. Good for the economy, but not many laughs in it.

Online economics

Date: 2009-11-27 03:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] applez.livejournal.com
Also a rather intriguing case for fully protected monopolized markets too. ;-)

Re: Online economics

Date: 2009-11-27 03:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
As is often the case, you've completely lost me.

Re: Online economics

Date: 2009-11-28 03:28 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] applez.livejournal.com
Just a minor point - every variable in that market is controlled by the game developers. The exchange rate is set, the items are sourced solely from the game developer on a fixed labor rate. The only 'free' market function is the relative demand and supply for a given item or service, and the real $ pricing that sets...but even that is vastly influenced by the game developer.

It's rather like a Central Bank on steroids.

Re: Online economics

Date: 2009-11-28 12:32 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
So WoW is Stalinist?....all my prejudices are confirmed.

D

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