Green Economics
Dec. 14th, 2009 09:32 amOne thing which has come out of the climate conference in Stockholm is that Chinese are asking for an international fund of $100bn to be raised by the west in order to help them and other nations make the shift to a green economy.
The thing about this is that most western economies are royally shafted at the moment and so the only place that $100bn is going to come from is if we borrow it, and the only people with $100bn to lend at the moment are the Chinese. In effect, what China is asking for is us to borrow a hundred billion off them, give it back, and then pay interest on it.
I may not like Ju Hintau very much, but by golly I don't half respect his chutzpah.
One thing that entertains me, in a bleak sort of way, is the amount of time which is spent online by people shouting about reducing their energy consumption. You see, back in 2007 New Scientist pointed out that The root of the power consumption hike is a seismic shift in how we use computers, with online activity at the heart of it. It's from internet use that much of the sharp growth in electricity consumption over the last decade has come, and so when someone describes themself as an online green activist, I just want to laugh at them.
Generating enough electricity to prevent shortages is going to be one of the major infrastructure problems in the next decade and with fossil fuels and nuclear being politically unpopular (although both will happen anyway), renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are being pushed as hard as possible. The problem with renewables is that they're quite pricey and really not very efficient. Earlier this year the German federal government commissioned a report into the 74 billion euros they've spent in the last decade on solar and wind power schemes which concluded that the promotion of renewables was "a tale of a massively expensive environmental and energy policy that is devoid of economic and environmental benefits".
So what's to do? None of the obvious methods of reducing energy consumption are politically viable as they involve things like lowering the population or getting people to play less World of Warcraft, which means that any solution is likely to sound good but not actually do anything worthwhile - and that brings me on to emissions trading.
This fine-sounding but utterly hopeless idea basically allocates individuals a personal allowance of CO2; if you drive less and use less electricity then you have a CO2 surplus to your name which you can sell on to others at a profit. If you consume more, then you have to buy more credits.
If the flaws in this plan aren't immediately obvious to you, stop and think about it. A similar scheme already in place in industry has resulted in massive international fraud (Europe-wide 'missing trader' frauds in carbon credits are estimated to be worth in excess of 5bn Euros this year). More interestingly, the international financial institutions are getting in on the act. You might not have noticed, but Morgan Stanley announced last week that they've opened a division dealing in complex derivatives based on the international carbon trading markets - and if you don't remember those then you really weren't paying attention during the banking crash.
So, welcome to the carbon bubble. We've barely begun to ride out the shockwaves of the last collapsing economic boom, and we're busily hurling cash at creating the next one. Carbon is currently trading at $5.50 on the international markets, and this will rise - with the only people getting rich out of it being the traders as heavy industry shifts to countries with little or no enforcement of carbon tariffs. An ill-regulated market in a product which is ultimately impossible to measure? You thought the housing bubble going pop was spectacular. This one is going to be a doozy.
The thing about this is that most western economies are royally shafted at the moment and so the only place that $100bn is going to come from is if we borrow it, and the only people with $100bn to lend at the moment are the Chinese. In effect, what China is asking for is us to borrow a hundred billion off them, give it back, and then pay interest on it.
I may not like Ju Hintau very much, but by golly I don't half respect his chutzpah.
One thing that entertains me, in a bleak sort of way, is the amount of time which is spent online by people shouting about reducing their energy consumption. You see, back in 2007 New Scientist pointed out that The root of the power consumption hike is a seismic shift in how we use computers, with online activity at the heart of it. It's from internet use that much of the sharp growth in electricity consumption over the last decade has come, and so when someone describes themself as an online green activist, I just want to laugh at them.
Generating enough electricity to prevent shortages is going to be one of the major infrastructure problems in the next decade and with fossil fuels and nuclear being politically unpopular (although both will happen anyway), renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are being pushed as hard as possible. The problem with renewables is that they're quite pricey and really not very efficient. Earlier this year the German federal government commissioned a report into the 74 billion euros they've spent in the last decade on solar and wind power schemes which concluded that the promotion of renewables was "a tale of a massively expensive environmental and energy policy that is devoid of economic and environmental benefits".
So what's to do? None of the obvious methods of reducing energy consumption are politically viable as they involve things like lowering the population or getting people to play less World of Warcraft, which means that any solution is likely to sound good but not actually do anything worthwhile - and that brings me on to emissions trading.
This fine-sounding but utterly hopeless idea basically allocates individuals a personal allowance of CO2; if you drive less and use less electricity then you have a CO2 surplus to your name which you can sell on to others at a profit. If you consume more, then you have to buy more credits.
If the flaws in this plan aren't immediately obvious to you, stop and think about it. A similar scheme already in place in industry has resulted in massive international fraud (Europe-wide 'missing trader' frauds in carbon credits are estimated to be worth in excess of 5bn Euros this year). More interestingly, the international financial institutions are getting in on the act. You might not have noticed, but Morgan Stanley announced last week that they've opened a division dealing in complex derivatives based on the international carbon trading markets - and if you don't remember those then you really weren't paying attention during the banking crash.
So, welcome to the carbon bubble. We've barely begun to ride out the shockwaves of the last collapsing economic boom, and we're busily hurling cash at creating the next one. Carbon is currently trading at $5.50 on the international markets, and this will rise - with the only people getting rich out of it being the traders as heavy industry shifts to countries with little or no enforcement of carbon tariffs. An ill-regulated market in a product which is ultimately impossible to measure? You thought the housing bubble going pop was spectacular. This one is going to be a doozy.
no subject
Date: 2009-12-14 09:43 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-12-14 10:02 am (UTC)Surely the only things we can do are to try everything at once - wind, water, tidal and solar power on every available source - completely reset standards for buildings to require zero-carbon housing (ground-=heat pumps, mega insulation and removing all the heat drops) - completely annihilating our current requirements for classid housing and insultae the victorian houses with additional walls and everything - reduce air-travel by taxing it into the ground, tax petrol, tax any sort of gas guzzling cars and require us all to use wind up laptops.
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Date: 2009-12-14 10:14 am (UTC)(no subject)
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From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2009-12-14 06:28 pm (UTC) - ExpandYou're not thinking large enough
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Date: 2009-12-14 10:06 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-12-14 10:18 am (UTC)(no subject)
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From:IT vs. Pre-IT
From:Re: IT vs. Pre-IT
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Date: 2009-12-15 08:14 am (UTC)The most ironic thing about this ...
Date: 2009-12-14 11:52 am (UTC)H
Re: The most ironic thing about this ...
Date: 2009-12-14 12:53 pm (UTC)Yeah, they make a fat profit from supplying power through feedin tarriffs which is taxed at 40%, but as 100% of that money is funded by the taxpayer all that means is that the taypayer ends up 60% worse off than when they started.
As stupid systems go, carbon trading and feedin tarrifs are up there with the best of Brownonomics.
Re: The most ironic thing about this ...
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2009-12-14 02:44 pm (UTC) - ExpandRe: The most ironic thing about this ...
From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2009-12-15 08:18 am (UTC) - Expandno subject
Date: 2009-12-14 12:08 pm (UTC)So I guess I'll just have to try to get in on the ground floor of the carbon trading bubble so I can afford my armed compound when anarchy takes off.
no subject
Date: 2009-12-14 12:17 pm (UTC)Part of this is going to involve emission regulation, and part of it is is likely to involve direct and purposeful intervention with Earth's biosphere. Neither of these are going to happen on their own. We need some forum/infrastructure in place for the international community to deliberately dick about with the atmosphere. This isn't the one I (internationally renowned climate econometrician that I am) would choose, and it very probably isn't going to have the desired 'carbon incidence', but I'm not entirely convinced that its presence is less desirable than its absence.
no subject
Date: 2009-12-14 12:45 pm (UTC)Like the house-price bubble, though, it doesn't tackle the underlying problem, it merely postpones it.
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Date: 2009-12-14 01:12 pm (UTC)H
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Date: 2009-12-14 07:19 pm (UTC)D
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Date: 2009-12-14 07:49 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-12-14 10:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-12-15 08:55 am (UTC)Apparently one kid lost three stone over the summer holidays.
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Date: 2009-12-22 11:46 am (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 2009-12-15 02:54 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-12-15 12:11 pm (UTC)I'd say we're in the "Instituional Investors" phase at the moment, and so it's a good time to get on board. You get out again when you see blanket coverage of the money to be made in carbon trading in the mainstream press, like we did with house prices back in 2006.
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From: (Anonymous) - Date: 2009-12-15 02:07 pm (UTC) - Expand(no subject)
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From:Had an interesting argument about carbon taxes today
Date: 2009-12-15 03:05 am (UTC)Basically every system: cap & trade, or transparent tax easily accommodated with the existing accounts department, has it's critical flaws - mostly dependent on an attentive public to transparent transactions.
Oh yeah, and in the grand scheme of things, while Da Interwebs have a significant environmental impact, I wager a goodly number of other things in our modern lifestyles have as much or more impact.
I'd like to think it's question of a change of attitude - if all that WoW time is conceived as an investment, then one immediately begins to consider other costs relative to that desired activity.
Re: Had an interesting argument about carbon taxes today
Date: 2009-12-15 08:57 am (UTC)Re: Had an interesting argument about carbon taxes today
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From:no subject
Date: 2009-12-17 01:10 pm (UTC)The problem is, who is going to be applying this in Somalia? or North Korea?
Who will carry out the global census so we know how much carbon each person has to play with?