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[personal profile] davywavy
One thing which has come out of the climate conference in Stockholm is that Chinese are asking for an international fund of $100bn to be raised by the west in order to help them and other nations make the shift to a green economy.
The thing about this is that most western economies are royally shafted at the moment and so the only place that $100bn is going to come from is if we borrow it, and the only people with $100bn to lend at the moment are the Chinese. In effect, what China is asking for is us to borrow a hundred billion off them, give it back, and then pay interest on it.
I may not like Ju Hintau very much, but by golly I don't half respect his chutzpah.

One thing that entertains me, in a bleak sort of way, is the amount of time which is spent online by people shouting about reducing their energy consumption. You see, back in 2007 New Scientist pointed out that The root of the power consumption hike is a seismic shift in how we use computers, with online activity at the heart of it. It's from internet use that much of the sharp growth in electricity consumption over the last decade has come, and so when someone describes themself as an online green activist, I just want to laugh at them.
Generating enough electricity to prevent shortages is going to be one of the major infrastructure problems in the next decade and with fossil fuels and nuclear being politically unpopular (although both will happen anyway), renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are being pushed as hard as possible. The problem with renewables is that they're quite pricey and really not very efficient. Earlier this year the German federal government commissioned a report into the 74 billion euros they've spent in the last decade on solar and wind power schemes which concluded that the promotion of renewables was "a tale of a massively expensive environmental and energy policy that is devoid of economic and environmental benefits".

So what's to do? None of the obvious methods of reducing energy consumption are politically viable as they involve things like lowering the population or getting people to play less World of Warcraft, which means that any solution is likely to sound good but not actually do anything worthwhile - and that brings me on to emissions trading.
This fine-sounding but utterly hopeless idea basically allocates individuals a personal allowance of CO2; if you drive less and use less electricity then you have a CO2 surplus to your name which you can sell on to others at a profit. If you consume more, then you have to buy more credits.
If the flaws in this plan aren't immediately obvious to you, stop and think about it. A similar scheme already in place in industry has resulted in massive international fraud (Europe-wide 'missing trader' frauds in carbon credits are estimated to be worth in excess of 5bn Euros this year). More interestingly, the international financial institutions are getting in on the act. You might not have noticed, but Morgan Stanley announced last week that they've opened a division dealing in complex derivatives based on the international carbon trading markets - and if you don't remember those then you really weren't paying attention during the banking crash.

So, welcome to the carbon bubble. We've barely begun to ride out the shockwaves of the last collapsing economic boom, and we're busily hurling cash at creating the next one. Carbon is currently trading at $5.50 on the international markets, and this will rise - with the only people getting rich out of it being the traders as heavy industry shifts to countries with little or no enforcement of carbon tariffs. An ill-regulated market in a product which is ultimately impossible to measure? You thought the housing bubble going pop was spectacular. This one is going to be a doozy.

Date: 2009-12-14 09:43 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vampyrefate.livejournal.com
We need more waterwheels!

Date: 2009-12-14 10:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] twicedead.livejournal.com
So what's your solution then?

Surely the only things we can do are to try everything at once - wind, water, tidal and solar power on every available source - completely reset standards for buildings to require zero-carbon housing (ground-=heat pumps, mega insulation and removing all the heat drops) - completely annihilating our current requirements for classid housing and insultae the victorian houses with additional walls and everything - reduce air-travel by taxing it into the ground, tax petrol, tax any sort of gas guzzling cars and require us all to use wind up laptops.
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Date: 2009-12-14 10:14 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
I'm with James Lovelock on climate change. If it's changing then trying to slow/stop the process is already too late and we'd be better off using the resources we're putting into doing so to mitigate against the effects rather than engage in a Sisyphean project to stop it.

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You're not thinking large enough

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Date: 2009-12-14 10:06 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sea-cucumber.livejournal.com
Offsetting your carbon emissions is easy - just go out and plant lots of trees, no need to get financial institutions involved! :D And trees are good :)

Date: 2009-12-14 10:18 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] twicedead.livejournal.com
Unfortunately if we wanted to offset all the carbon emmissions we are creating we'd have to plant over all the ground we use for growing crops.

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IT vs. Pre-IT

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Re: IT vs. Pre-IT

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Re: IT vs. Pre-IT

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Date: 2009-12-15 08:14 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
You are clearly a genius.

The most ironic thing about this ...

Date: 2009-12-14 11:52 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
... is watching all the people in the Guardian "Comment is Free" feature, calling for hefty new taxes on Greedy Bankers to finance bold new green initiatives ... in other words they are demanding that the government should bring in a new set of tariffs and incentives which will distort the market and create a new set of arbitraging opportunities for people smart enough to profit by them, such as ... er, bankers

H

Re: The most ironic thing about this ...

Date: 2009-12-14 12:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Taxpayer funded markets like this are a find method of transferring money from those least able to profit from such systems - i.e. poor folk without any investment capital - into the pockets of those best able - i.e. international fanancial organisations.
Yeah, they make a fat profit from supplying power through feedin tarriffs which is taxed at 40%, but as 100% of that money is funded by the taxpayer all that means is that the taypayer ends up 60% worse off than when they started.

As stupid systems go, carbon trading and feedin tarrifs are up there with the best of Brownonomics.

Re: The most ironic thing about this ...

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Re: The most ironic thing about this ...

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Date: 2009-12-14 12:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] calligrafiti.livejournal.com
Yeah, I'm not optimistic about global cooperation on reducing carbon emissions, especially as one of the larger emitters (the US) has a critical mass of people who believe climate change is a trick by liberal elites to make them give up their SUVs. I'd roll my eyes more, but I'm thinking of taking pilot lessons in the spring, which reduces my room to talk to about 1 square centimeter.

So I guess I'll just have to try to get in on the ground floor of the carbon trading bubble so I can afford my armed compound when anarchy takes off.

Date: 2009-12-14 12:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] crocodilewings.livejournal.com
I can't decide whether I agree with you on this or not. On the one hand, any raw market solution aimed at restraining consumption, even one that works, is only going to postpone the problem. On the other hand, at some point our species is going to have to develop the means of regulating Earth's atmosphere.

Part of this is going to involve emission regulation, and part of it is is likely to involve direct and purposeful intervention with Earth's biosphere. Neither of these are going to happen on their own. We need some forum/infrastructure in place for the international community to deliberately dick about with the atmosphere. This isn't the one I (internationally renowned climate econometrician that I am) would choose, and it very probably isn't going to have the desired 'carbon incidence', but I'm not entirely convinced that its presence is less desirable than its absence.

Date: 2009-12-14 12:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Carbion trading schemes will work - to an extent - right until the point the balloon goes up, in the same way that propping up the economy with rising house prices worked really well until it didn't.

Like the house-price bubble, though, it doesn't tackle the underlying problem, it merely postpones it.

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Date: 2009-12-14 01:12 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
I'm probably more optimistic than you about the capacity of technology to deliver. I remember talking to someone about a "comedy motoring" chapter in a Dornford Yates novel, probably set around say 1910, where the characters set off on a Motoring Expedition, to drive maybe five or ten miles, and everything goes wrong (the engine overheats, the crank handle gets lots, a tyre goes flat...) If you told someone in 1910 how many cars there would be on the road in a hundred years' time, and they extrapolated from the Dornford Yates scene, they would anticipate cataclysm, national disaster, the fall of the government, but it hasn't happened, because we've got much better at design and fuel economy. Or look at very old pictures of the flooding they used to get in the Fens - miserable subsistence farmers bringing the blackened hay in by boat - unthinkable today in the First World, and (hopefully) by the end of this century, in the Third as well.

H

Date: 2009-12-14 07:19 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
I've said it before here: vive les nukes. (Always check out what the most cynically realistic people on Earth have been doing for the last 20 years).

D

Date: 2009-12-14 07:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] moomin-puffin.livejournal.com
As far as personal consumption of electricity goes I wish people would stop trying to induce epilepsy by sticking what looks like Blackpool Illumination's vomit all over their houses. They can't see it, it hurts my ears, it makes the polar bears cry.

Date: 2009-12-14 10:36 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gnommi.livejournal.com
I always thought that there must be a cunning way to rig up an exercise bike to make your character run and power your computer at the same time whilst playing WoW. It must be possible!

Date: 2009-12-15 08:55 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
It is - I recall reading a report about a school in teh 'states which installed a bunch of Playstations in the gym, and rigged them up to exercise bikes, so you coupld play for fre for as long as you kept pedalling.
Apparently one kid lost three stone over the summer holidays.

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Date: 2009-12-22 11:46 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
A bit of research tells me that running a WoW avatar for a year over average play-time consumes as much electricity as the average real-life Brazilian. That's impressive.

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Date: 2009-12-15 02:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] susanofstohelit.livejournal.com
did you hear that Blythe Masters is heading JP Morgan's carbon trading group? nothing went wrong with her ideas about CDOs.

Date: 2009-12-15 12:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
I don't doubt her ability - however, it's an indicator of the the point in the cycle at which we are:



I'd say we're in the "Instituional Investors" phase at the moment, and so it's a good time to get on board. You get out again when you see blanket coverage of the money to be made in carbon trading in the mainstream press, like we did with house prices back in 2006.

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From: [identity profile] applez.livejournal.com
Essentially, I found myself arguing the point that big industry will support a carbon tax/fee that they can influence through the political 'leaders' it has bought off, to pay a fee that in fact costs less than changing their operations to actually reduce emissions (and associated taxes), and then getting their influenced government to cough up those tax revenues back as capital for the operational investments required to reduce operations per production widget (e.g. "you did it for General Motors, didn't you?").

Basically every system: cap & trade, or transparent tax easily accommodated with the existing accounts department, has it's critical flaws - mostly dependent on an attentive public to transparent transactions.

Oh yeah, and in the grand scheme of things, while Da Interwebs have a significant environmental impact, I wager a goodly number of other things in our modern lifestyles have as much or more impact.

I'd like to think it's question of a change of attitude - if all that WoW time is conceived as an investment, then one immediately begins to consider other costs relative to that desired activity.

Edited Date: 2009-12-15 03:08 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Nigel Lawson (former chancellor over here and the last really good one) has written a book on this, essentially saying that if you want people to burn less carbon the only way to do it is simply to tax fossil fuels at source more highly. Any other scheme is simply too easily avoided or subverted.
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Date: 2009-12-17 01:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davywavy.livejournal.com
Yes - a carbon market can only work with even international application.
The problem is, who is going to be applying this in Somalia? or North Korea?
Who will carry out the global census so we know how much carbon each person has to play with?
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