[Politics] More joy in heaven over a sinner who repenteth, etc.

[davywavy]

Long term readers might recall how, back in 2005, I started getting all worked up and ants in my pants about the way there was an economic crash heading our way and it might be a good idea to do something about it beforehand. I'd rather reached this conclusion after watching with horror Gordon Brown's actions as chancellor and coming to the conclusion that the man wasn't an economist or a finance expert, and just didn't seem to understand how economies work.

Naturally, I got loudly disagreed with at the time about this because after all, Gordon was an economic genius who had ended boom and bust and - to quote one of the more rib-tickling comments I got at the time - was more financially credible than his predecessor (a man who, for all his faults, tried to pay down debt in the good times).

Anyway, I was rather pleased to note the other day that after a delay of a mere six years, Gordon Brown himself has come round to my way of thinking and now agrees with me. There is an extraordinary disclaimer in the opening pages of Gordon Brown’s Beyond The Crash. He writes: “I am neither a finance expert nor a trained economist", and it's just sobering that he didn't figure that one out ten years or so ago and let someone else - maybe me - have a go at that finance and economics job he held. The other weekend he popped the cherry on top of that particular cake by observing at Bretton Woods that when he was in charge of the economy, he just didn't understand how entangled economies actually are.

Still, with any luck I can shut up about this one now. I can't imagine there are many people wanting to defend the oaf these days.

Comments

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

who had ended boom and bust

Yes, I can see how that would be a great idea; in fact, our own fearless leaders used to end boom and bust forever quite regularly in the seventies. I think I've lost count, actually.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

I'll tell you what winds me up; very many of the same people who were telling me I was wrong about there being a crash coming six years ago are now telling me that I'm wrong about how the consequences of the crash they didn't see coming should be managed.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

Incidentally, what's your take on your recent elections? I hear the Finnish national Party (or equivalent) did rather well?

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

Ohh, yes. That whole lot. Well, first of all, just in the name of full disclosure, I should probably say that like a lot of other voters, I was a bit shell-shocked that they actually got the numbers they did. In fairness they're a comparatively moderate specimen of their ideological breed, but even so they're really, really, really not my kind of a political party.

But that aside, I think my take is that these particular government negotiations will be the toughest in decades. Normally we get very stable, fairly broad coalitions together. But now the three major parties, on whom the most likely grand bargain hinges on, want very different things. The Social Democrats and the conservative National Coalition would probably go well enough together, after a bit of wrangling over the details, but they can't really bypass the PS right now. They've won too many seats, taken too many new votes. They've basically got a golden claim ticket on access to coalition negotiations.

Of course, the PS, on their part, have no actual experience of government. Up until now they've effectively been a protest party. I think that if they want any kind of a long-term stake in power, they've got to stop thinking like a perpetual opposition party, and learn to make the sorts of broad-based compromises Finnish politics hinges on -- even if doing so will disillusion some of their new voters. Whether a workable long-term modus vivendi can be found here, I don't know. Right now it at least looks as if everybody is willing to give it a go. But we'll know more once we know what the make-up of the new government coalition will be.

Sadly he made the admission in the US, rather than in Parliament

[(Anonymous)]

"Wearing a loosely fitting shift of sackcloth and repeatedly smiting his brow with a small bundle of twigs, a repentant Brown told CNN News, 'Och, David was right all along, and I was wrong, I freely admit it. I didnae ha' a clue what was going on. I was jist wunging it. To all those people who argued wi' David on his Livejournal, I say tae all o' ye, tak' my example, and apologise meekly tae him, as it is my full intention tae do.'"

H

Re: Sadly he made the admission in the US, rather than in Parliament

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

I can guarantee there won't be anyone popping up to acknowledge they may have been wrong at the time. The very people who told me I was wrong then are telling me I'm wrong now. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful motivator, it seems.

Re: Sadly he made the admission in the US, rather than in Parliament

[(Anonymous)]

Good thing you're not bitter, eh

H

Re: Sadly he made the admission in the US, rather than in Parliament

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

The very idea.

Re: Sadly he made the admission in the US, rather than in Parliament

[(Anonymous)]

Ock, canna now hae the IMF jobbie?

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

As I say in a reply to someone above, cognitive dissonance is a powerful motivator and we're going to see people defending him even after he's admitted he didn't know what was going on because otherwise they might have to admit they were in error supporting him at the time.

Incidentally, did you mention you run a rock night in Cardiff a while back? I might be going there for some businessy stuff sometime in the next few months and a night out would be nice.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

So long as there's a dancefloor with sufficient room for me to flail wildly without harming others I'm good.