JJ Abrams to take over Star Wars.

[davywavy]

Just like I said right here, two and a half years ago.

http://davywavy.livejournal.com/434088.html?thread=6807976

You know, I really ought to try making some predictions about politics and the economy. Maybe they'd come true too.

Comments

[crocodilewings.livejournal.com]

Test yourself

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

I already have.

[crocodilewings.livejournal.com]

I see you boast a lot about predictions you made that have come true, but I never see it done in a way that convinces me you aren't just cherry-picking from an enormous back-catalogue of predictions. Committing to them in advance, in public, with relative levels of confidence, and having a rolling record of your overall success rate...that'd be pretty convincing.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

That's entirely fine, this post was more intended in a pisstakey way but it's fair criticism.

However, I do try put my money where my mouth is simply by investing in things that I htink will make me money on the basis of what I think is going to happen.

For example; I reckon that we'll have economically bottomed out and be on the up in three years time, but I reckon there's probably going to be some volatility before that happens and I've spent my own money on that basis so you'll know that, if I'm wrong, I'll have lost my own money as a result.

Consider that my penalty for overconfident braggadoccio.