[Politics] Peak UKIP

[davywavy]

Well, it’s over. You can all come out from under the bedclothes now.

If my various pro-European Union chums are to be believed, the EU is a harmless and benign talking shop which has minimal influence over the member states or their legislation. If this is actually true then really I don’t see what the fuss is about as all that’s happened is a bunch of ranty fruitcakes have been shipped off to Brussels into an environment where they can’t really do much harm. Assuming it’s true, that is.

Anyway, we won’t know the outcome of yesterday’s election until after the weekend, but judging by the audience reaction everyone expects UKIP to have done really well. Certainly they'll do a lot better in the Euro elections than they did in the local/council elections, which was well enough. The big question, in terms of UK politics, is whether they came first and beat Labour into second place. Everyone knows the European elections are a sideshow and treats them as a protest vote, but if Labour can’t win a protest vote against a government they tell us is unpopular then it’s game over for them in 2015. The results of the European elections will be a powerful predictor of the UK general election next year in the sense that if UKIP won then the next UK government will be Conservative or a Conservative/Libdem coalition. If they didn’t then the game is still open for Labour.

My friends list has grown increasingly shrill over the last week as it’s become increasingly clear that UKIP can expect to do well, and the anger and dismay over this has been something to behold. I’ve seen a lot of people expressing complete incomprehension over the rise of UKIP, and so I thought I’d briefly tackle that. *

In 1944, Friedrich Hayek predicted in The Road to Serfdom that a combination of generous welfare and open migration would inevitably lead to a rise in nationalistic politics, as welfare in one place would automatically be more generous than standard of living in another; this would lead to economic migration which would result in people being outcompeted for employment opportunities. Resentment would grow and populist nationalism would become a political force to be reckoned with. At risk of blowing my own trumpet, I said this was what was happening five years ago after the last European elections and now we’re here. It’s not like I didn’t warn you.

What we’re seeing here began as a dislike of the supranational and undemocratic nature of the European Union, and has become a representation of the cry of inchoate rage from people who’ve been outcompeted and left behind by globalisation. As this has moved beyond the original issue for UKIP, what was a single-issue pressure group with an eye on global trade has had to come up with all kinds of fairly rubbish but populist policies (A sovereign wealth fund. I ask you. Pfft.) which have attracted a whole very wide selection of people who see a rapid rise of a protest vote as an opportunity to grind their personal axe whether the party actually want that axe grinding or not
.
Because that’s the question which everyone who doesn’t seem to understand why UKIP have done well fails to answer. If someone is anti-EU, or anti-gay marriage, or has been outcompeted by global economic forces, or whatever, who the heck are they supposed to vote for?** None of the Conservatives, Libdems or Labour offer these people what they want. If you’re sat there going on about “But why are they voting for the nasty racists”, it’s because nobody else is offering them anything. Jeez. It’s not rocket science. Either a third of the population are nasty racists or they’re so hacked off, angry and desperate and contemptuous of the other parties (yes, that includes you, Greens***) that they’ll monkeywrench to spite you.

However, I mention above that this is peak UKIP, and it is. This is their high water mark and their support will fall away from now on. The Guardian noted the other day that economically speaking UKIP is increasingly a left-wing party and that, coupled with it’s increasingly ranty nature and Dave’s pledge of an in/out referendum in the next parliament, will see enough anti-EU people and disaffected Conservatives return to the fold to see Dave back in at the next election, I reckon. What will be left behind will be the rump of true believers, plus the disaffected old Labour supporters and angry folk who made up the million voters of the BNP at the last European elections.****

So there you are. You can stop worrying now. A third of the population aren't nasty racists or anything of the sort, and that sort of accusation achieves nothing but another point in UKIPs polls. Instead, a third of the population have what seem to them legitimate concerns and no outlet for those concerns in any other party - and as I said back in 2009: if you're interested in your favourite party winning anything any time soon, you might want to consider doing something about that.



*One thing which sometimes happens when I write this sort of post trying to work through why political or economic stuff which some people find unpleasant or offensive happens is that someone pops out of the woodwork and goes “Aha! So you support [thing I’ve tried to talk through]”. If that’s you could you just not bother commenting, please? It’ll save us both time as I’ve precisely zero interest in getting into that.

**This is a serious question. If you think people who voted for UKIP are stupid for doing so, who do they think they should vote for if they want the things I've listed?

***If you think the Greens offer this demographic anything you're mistaken. Sorry, but there you are.

****There’s a strong historical correlation between protectionist economics and state-sanctioned racism, which isn’t really surprising when you think about it.

Comments

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

That's a good point, and if you talk to certainly some UKIP voters (and SNP voters, in fact) on the internet they have the passionate intensity of the of convert, which will brook no disagreement I've had SNP supporters actively deleting comments which point out the flaws in their economic arguments - can't dispute what I say, so just wish it away instead.

[(Anonymous)]

To be fair though, you don't make points with actual factual backing. You make snarky remarks and expect readers to believe you without anything to back up your point. Such comments aren't worth responding too. Until you bring evidence to support your opinions, they aren't worth cluttering up feeds.

[davywavy.livejournal.com]

Hallo, anonymous UKIP supporter. Welcome aboard!

Feel free to ask questions on specifics if you'd like anything clarified.

[(Anonymous)]

And yet here you are.