The elephant in the room next door.
Sep. 26th, 2020 03:46 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
davywavyThere’s a concept which is getting increasing amounts of interest in those odd corners of geopolitics on the internet I sometimes swing through. It’s that of the Civilisation State. If you’re wondering, the idea is that of an identifiable civilisation within identifiable borders. Classically, the two great examples of this are China and India, but there’s an argument for Iran (and also historically places like Ancient Egypt) to give you an idea of what’s meant by the term.
It also seems that Russia is trying to position itself as a Civilisation State as the global status quo shifts (personally I think they’re just not coherent enough to manage it, but I can see why they’re trying it). However as the shockwaves from the 2008 crash subside and a reordered world appears it seems that a new era of civilisation states is emerging, in part as previously weaker players on the global stage push back against the preceding era of globalisation and cultural export from the west.
As the rest of the world grows more culturally assertive, new civilisation states are appearing and I think will be the defining feature of the next cycle. As the USA increasingly sheds its European cultural heritage and becomes something else, I think it will become much more its own thing*. At the same time the EU is certainly trying to become a European Civilisation State, and others may appear – large parts of the middle east and north Africa, perhaps.
It’s interesting to consider Brexit and its attendant effects within that structure. Britain – and especially England on that here – has always had a mixed relationship with Europe and its culture, and the manner of its relationship with the EU as a civilizational state was likely to continue that.
As it is, an idea which is gaining traction in some political circles is that of CANZUK (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK) as a bloc. Now I know this has been dismissed as some kind of right-wing fantasy by many, but I’d say it’s a fantasy held by people who’ve enjoyed a large amount of electoral success lately, and it’s not just an idea which is generating interest in the UK either, as this indicates.
Certainly being an isolated country without formal engagements is likely to suck in a multipolar world of great powers more than it did in a bipolar or unipolar one so I can see why the idea is getting notice. There’s a lot of historic precedents to what happens to a single county bordering a major power. There’s even a word for it – Finlandisation – and it’s not complimentary. Instead it reflects the endless concessions and accommodations which inevitably get made to the elephant in the room next door.
Canzuk would certainly be interesting; the first civilisation state with a global rather than regional or continental footprint.
So if you look at Brexit as a cultural event within a shifting network of civilizations, I think the visceral reactions make much more sense. Identity is an emotional thing, and you mess with people’s emotional attachment at your peril.
It’s that question of identity upon which hinges the renewed calls by independence movements. Brexit can be interpreted as a successful campaign by an identitarian independence movement, but there are other such movements in play – most vocally, Scotland. Scotland, like Finland, has for a lot of its existence had to deal with the elephant in the room next door, and tried to play England and European allies off against each other. Through the prism of emergent cultural and civilizational blocs, Scots independence becomes a decision of which culture Scotland wants to align itself with – a European one, or an Anglospherical one. Leaving the union and not joining the EU would be the worst outcome for them, as they’d end up ground between two gears.
Pretty obviously what the SNP wanted was the position Ulster is likely to end up with – that of a lynchpin of the western European economy, with a foot in two camps and a position where if you want to do business in both the UK and EU it’s where you go. Sadly for them there’s only room for one to hold this role and barring accidents its going to be Belfast rather than Edinburgh. The huge economic benefits of holding such a role will accrue over the Irish sea, further weakening the economic case for independence.
But as Brexit showed the economic case can be trumped by an emotional one, and the emotional decision for Scotland here is where they stand in terms of a world of emerging cultural blocs. Many feel an affinity for the Nordic social democracies, but Canada and New Zealand (maybe not Australia) have just as strong Scottish roots as English and there’s a pull in that direction as well.
The task for the Unionists, therefore, is to make an emotional case for a bigger world. The economic case for not breaking the union is solid and the SNP will struggle to make a stronger one, so they will focus on the emotional as the easier argument. How the unionists respond to that plea in a shifting world will decide the issue.
*I think what the US will become is something akin to Star Trek’s Starfleet or Starship Trooper’s Federation - not exactly what you might call fully democratic, ostensibly very meritocratic and dedicated to individual refights, but also heavily militarised and perfectly willing to use overwhelming force if threatened.
It also seems that Russia is trying to position itself as a Civilisation State as the global status quo shifts (personally I think they’re just not coherent enough to manage it, but I can see why they’re trying it). However as the shockwaves from the 2008 crash subside and a reordered world appears it seems that a new era of civilisation states is emerging, in part as previously weaker players on the global stage push back against the preceding era of globalisation and cultural export from the west.
As the rest of the world grows more culturally assertive, new civilisation states are appearing and I think will be the defining feature of the next cycle. As the USA increasingly sheds its European cultural heritage and becomes something else, I think it will become much more its own thing*. At the same time the EU is certainly trying to become a European Civilisation State, and others may appear – large parts of the middle east and north Africa, perhaps.
It’s interesting to consider Brexit and its attendant effects within that structure. Britain – and especially England on that here – has always had a mixed relationship with Europe and its culture, and the manner of its relationship with the EU as a civilizational state was likely to continue that.
As it is, an idea which is gaining traction in some political circles is that of CANZUK (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK) as a bloc. Now I know this has been dismissed as some kind of right-wing fantasy by many, but I’d say it’s a fantasy held by people who’ve enjoyed a large amount of electoral success lately, and it’s not just an idea which is generating interest in the UK either, as this indicates.
Certainly being an isolated country without formal engagements is likely to suck in a multipolar world of great powers more than it did in a bipolar or unipolar one so I can see why the idea is getting notice. There’s a lot of historic precedents to what happens to a single county bordering a major power. There’s even a word for it – Finlandisation – and it’s not complimentary. Instead it reflects the endless concessions and accommodations which inevitably get made to the elephant in the room next door.
Canzuk would certainly be interesting; the first civilisation state with a global rather than regional or continental footprint.
So if you look at Brexit as a cultural event within a shifting network of civilizations, I think the visceral reactions make much more sense. Identity is an emotional thing, and you mess with people’s emotional attachment at your peril.
It’s that question of identity upon which hinges the renewed calls by independence movements. Brexit can be interpreted as a successful campaign by an identitarian independence movement, but there are other such movements in play – most vocally, Scotland. Scotland, like Finland, has for a lot of its existence had to deal with the elephant in the room next door, and tried to play England and European allies off against each other. Through the prism of emergent cultural and civilizational blocs, Scots independence becomes a decision of which culture Scotland wants to align itself with – a European one, or an Anglospherical one. Leaving the union and not joining the EU would be the worst outcome for them, as they’d end up ground between two gears.
Pretty obviously what the SNP wanted was the position Ulster is likely to end up with – that of a lynchpin of the western European economy, with a foot in two camps and a position where if you want to do business in both the UK and EU it’s where you go. Sadly for them there’s only room for one to hold this role and barring accidents its going to be Belfast rather than Edinburgh. The huge economic benefits of holding such a role will accrue over the Irish sea, further weakening the economic case for independence.
But as Brexit showed the economic case can be trumped by an emotional one, and the emotional decision for Scotland here is where they stand in terms of a world of emerging cultural blocs. Many feel an affinity for the Nordic social democracies, but Canada and New Zealand (maybe not Australia) have just as strong Scottish roots as English and there’s a pull in that direction as well.
The task for the Unionists, therefore, is to make an emotional case for a bigger world. The economic case for not breaking the union is solid and the SNP will struggle to make a stronger one, so they will focus on the emotional as the easier argument. How the unionists respond to that plea in a shifting world will decide the issue.
*I think what the US will become is something akin to Star Trek’s Starfleet or Starship Trooper’s Federation - not exactly what you might call fully democratic, ostensibly very meritocratic and dedicated to individual refights, but also heavily militarised and perfectly willing to use overwhelming force if threatened.
